This current coronavirus pandemic was probably one of the most predicable things that could happen. In 2015, Bill Gates talked about this very concern and that we, as a society, weren’t prepared. Throughout history viruses have emerged and decimated societies with lethal regularity. It has only been with the emergence of modern medical science that we’ve been capable of tamping down or getting some control of these outbreaks. In today’s world we have more tools—science and technology—to fight the spread of a virus, but their are two things that remain the key variables in success. One, maintaining a robust pandemic response structure so it’s in place and ready, and two, this is critical, quickly and decisively acting to slow and contain the spread of the virus.
The United States is now the epicenter of a global pandemic that began in China in mid January. There are a lot of questions that need answering. We knew China had a serious outbreak in mid January…and yet our government wasn’t on war footing. This lack of proactiveness meant we lost a month or more of time preparing for this virus and putting in place measures to slow and contain its spread. This epic failure will extract a massive cost on our country, both economically and socially.
This morning I recommend you read an Atlantic piece entitled How the Coronavirus Became an American Catastrophe.
As the authors explain, there were a number of system failures to be sure. The principal failure was not having adequate testing in place which would have aided us in slowing the spread of the virus once it hit the U.S. But in the larger picture there was a failure of leadership. A leader’s principle task is to look ahead and see potential problems and quickly navigate to a better, more safer, course. That simply didn’t happen in this case. Before and during a crisis a competent leader quickly detects potential threats and problems, leans forward, studies the situation aggressively, and then actively engages his assets and capabilities to ensure everything possible is done to avoid a catastrophe.
In this case our national leadership was negligent in preparing this country for our greatest challenge since probably WWII. We will, eventually, beat this virus and life will slowly return to normalcy. But we cannot forget how important (how critical!) competent government leadership is for the survival of our way of life.
Remember this at the next election.
It’s impossible to predict just how bad this Coronavirus outbreak will get. Given the entire situation, there is no need for panic….yet. But we must be prepared for a major outbreak in this country. But are we?
What makes this situation potentially far worse is that China is not an open society, and so we cannot trust the information coming out of China. And without reliable information it becomes hard to calibrate and prepare a response.
On Rod Dreher’s blog he passes on a comment from “Wyoming Doc,” a physician he knows who’s married to a Chinese immigrant and they get the People’s Republic of China’s official TV station piped into their home. Watching this station unfold, Wyoming Doc starts out by describing something you’d read in a totalitarian novel:
There have now been four occasions where I have witnessed on live Chinese national TV public officials being frog-marched out of press conferences in hand irons. Their crimes? One had his mask on upside down. One did not have a mask on at all. One was stating (translated by my wife) that he had repeatedly been telling Beijing about the problems for weeks – and there was no response. One was answering every question with obvious double-speak (not unlike listening to Nancy Pelosi or Ted Cruz). Shortly into the press conferences, young men from the PLA show up – slapped on the hand irons – and hauled them out and in all 4 cases – it was just stunned silence in the rooms. My wife just casually tells me – “no one will ever see them again.”
And between Wyoming Doc’s own medical expertise and what he’s witnessing in China he thinks things are far worse than the Chinese government is reporting.
It is also clear to me as a physician – listening to the Chinese doctors – and viewing footage from the hospitals and clinics – that this is many orders of magnitude worse than what they are saying. Common sense will tell you that as well – are they really going to torpedo their entire industrial heartland for months – just because 300 people have died? — I think not – I think this is way worse than we can possibly imagine.
And this leads Doc to ask some serious medical and political questions about preparedness in the U.S.
My other question is for us in the USA. Our supply lines – especially in things like medicine are DEPENDENT now on China. I have been saying for years this is a national security issue. And now their industrial heartland is on its knees. I do not know anything about auto parts and widgets – I do know a lot about medicine. There are many many things (saline bags, cardiac IV meds, antibiotics, blood pressure meds, diabetes meds, I can go on and on) that are only made in China. For the first time since this crisis began – late last week saw the very first issues I am having with my patients not being able to get things. We are promised this will just be the beginning. [emphasis mine — rd] There is no way that we can re-engineer factories quickly to start making things here – it will be at least a year. WHAT ARE WE GOING TO DO? When will the Chinese be able to get back to work – is an open question….. This situation was brought on by globalization and neo-liberal policies. It is truly a national security issue at this point – and I think we are all about to get a big dose of blowback. OUR ELITES ON BOTH SIDES HAVE COMPLETELY FAILED US. THE COUNTRY NEEDS A POLITICAL ENEMA IN THE WORST WAY.
This situation should remind us—again—that a major global outbreak is a national security issue of the highest order, and our governments—federal, state and local, had better have serious plans (and laws) in place to deal with it. Of course the Feds must take the led. This is a reminder of how important good, competent government leadership is for our society and our own well-being. This situation can go critical very quickly. If you read enough virology, you know that eventually a very deadly virus will erupt in our society and be hard to contain. It’s only a matter of time. Are we really prepared for this in the U.S.?